Counter-Strike: FOKUS vs Phantom (BO3) - Stake Ranked Episode 3: Closed Qualifier Playoffs

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The match is a best-of-three Counter-Strike playoff meeting between FOKUS and Phantom, and a **YES** share on a team simply means that team wins the market only if it wins the match under the settlement rules. In this case, the current crowd price at 100% YES implies the market is treating the result as already locked in, but the contract still depends on the actual match outcome or any special settlement event such as cancellation, a tie, or a long delay.[2]

Recent form gives some context for why the crowd is so one-sided. FOKUS had won 4 of its last 5 matches, while Phantom had also won 4 of its last 5, but external previews still leaned towards FOKUS: Strafe reported 88.6% of user votes for FOKUS, and Polymarket’s own esports page showed FOKUS at 71% versus Phantom at 29% for the match. Polymarket also noted FOKUS as the higher-ranked side, around world No. 60, with Phantom nearer No. 90 after reaching the bracket via a 2–0 over JiJieHao.[1][2][3]

For traders, the main catalysts are straightforward: official start-time changes, whether the semifinal is actually played, and any in-match completion issue that could trigger special settlement. Polymarket’s contract rules say a completed match settles on the winner, but a cancellation, tie, or delay beyond seven days without a winner leads to 50-50; if play starts but cannot be completed, the final settlement depends on the specific completion status and any winner awarded by forfeit or default.[2] An agenda listing placed the game for Sunday at 12:30 PM, which underlines the need to watch the organiser’s schedule rather than rely on a single preview page.[4]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.