Counter-Strike: G2 vs Legacy (BO3) - IEM Cologne Major Stage 3

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

G2 Esports will face Legacy in a best-of-three Counter-Strike match during the IEM Cologne Major Stage 3 on 14 June at 1:00 PM ET. This is a single-elimination round in one of the year's premier international tournaments. A prediction market on this event allows traders to buy YES shares (betting G2 win) or NO shares (betting Legacy win) at prices reflecting the crowd's confidence in each outcome. The current market price implies near-certainty that G2 will advance, though the settlement rules account for disruption: if the match is cancelled, delayed beyond seven days without completion, or ends in a tie, the market resolves 50-50 rather than favouring either side.

G2 have consistently ranked among Europe's top teams in 2024–2025, whilst Legacy, an emerging South American roster, have qualified for the Major but lack the tournament pedigree of their opponent. Historical precedent suggests established European sides win such matchups roughly 75–85% of the time against developing regional competitors at this stage, though upsets do occur. The 100% crowd probability here reflects G2's superior ranking and recent form rather than absolute certainty.

Traders should monitor ESL's official schedule for any last-minute postponements, player roster confirmations, or technical issues affecting the venue. Visa delays, illness, or equipment problems have occasionally forced Major matches to reschedule. The settlement window closes on 14 June at 23:00 UTC, allowing a full day for the match to complete. Any announcement of cancellation or force majeure before that deadline would trigger the 50-50 resolution clause.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.