Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Prediction Market UK Pick polygram.ink |
0% | 100% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | Open on Prediction Market UK → |
Polymarket polymarket.com |
0% | 100% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | Open on Prediction Market UK → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | Open on Prediction Market UK → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | Open on Prediction Market UK → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | Open on Prediction Market UK → |
Live odds for Polymarket-based markets come from the Polygon order book. Non-Polymarket venues show attributes only; clicking any row opens the market on Prediction Market UK.
Active sub-markets
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FOKUS (-3.5) vs Infinite (+3.5) | 0% FOKUS | 100% Infinite |
| Map 2 Rounds Handicap: FOKUS (-3.5) vs Infinite (+3.5) | 0% FOKUS | 100% Infinite |
| Map 2 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% Over | 100% Under |
| Map 1 Rounds Handicap: FOKUS (-6.5) vs Infinite (+6.5) | 0% FOKUS | 100% Infinite |
| Map 1 Total Rounds: Over/Under 24.5 | 0% Over | 100% Under |
| Match Winner | 100% Infinite | 0% FOKUS |
Market context
On 25 June 2026 at 12:00 UTC, the Counter-Strike Lower bracket semifinal 2 match between Infinite and FOKUS begins in DraculaN Group B, with the market resolving to "Infinite" if they win and "FOKUS" if they prevail. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the event occurs (here, Infinite winning), while a NO share pays out if it does not; the current crowd-implied probability of 0% YES suggests traders overwhelmingly expect FOKUS to win or the match to be cancelled. This extreme skew mirrors historical cases in lower-bracket CS2 play where underdogs in Group B stages, such as FOKUS in recent BC Game Masters Championship 2 finals, have dominated when facing teams with inconsistent lower-bracket records, as seen in Sofascore’s live match data for this fixture [1].
Traders should monitor real-time score updates on Sofascore for any match delays beyond seven days, which would trigger a 50-50 resolution, and watch for official announcements from the Super DraculaN Group B organisers regarding cancellations or tie scenarios [1]. Recent coverage from Dust2.us highlights that Infinite’s opponent was initially listed as "Unknown" before FOKUS was confirmed, indicating potential scheduling dependencies that could affect match completion [2]. With the settlement window ending 25 June 2026 at 15:00 UTC, the primary catalyst is the match’s live progression, as any incomplete game where one team wins due to the opponent’s forfeiture would resolve the market immediately, making stream availability and official result confirmations critical for accurate trading.
Methodology
We track Counter-Strike: Infinite vs FOKUS (BO3) - Super DraculaN Group B on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.
- What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?
- Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- Do I need to KYC for this market?
- Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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