Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - DraculaN Group A

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event is the Upper bracket quarterfinal 4 Counter-Strike match between Sharks and Eternal Fire, scheduled for 23 June 2026 at 2:00 PM ET within the DraculaN Group A tournament. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the market resolves to the named outcome (here, Sharks winning), while a NO share pays out if the outcome does not occur. This specific market currently shows a 100% crowd-implied probability for YES, suggesting the crowd believes Sharks will win with absolute certainty, though the market also includes a 50-50 resolution clause if the match is cancelled, tied, or delayed beyond seven days without a winner.

Historically, 100% implied probabilities in esports prediction markets are rare and often signal either a severe mismatch or a lack of liquidity rather than guaranteed victory. Comparable cases from past Counter-Strike tournaments show that even heavily favoured teams can lose due to in-game upsets, roster issues, or map-specific weaknesses, meaning a 100% reading should be treated with caution despite the crowd’s confidence. Traders should monitor official tournament announcements for schedule changes, roster confirmations, or match cancellations, as these are the primary catalysts that could trigger the 50-50 resolution clause. Recent coverage from Dust2 highlights the match’s inclusion in the Digital Crusade Super DraculaN Season 1, confirming the event’s legitimacy but also underscoring the need to verify live status before the settlement window closes on 23 June 2026 at 21:30 UTC [1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Counter-Strike: Sharks vs Eternal Fire (BO3) - DraculaN Group A on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.