Platform comparison
| Platform | YES odds | NO odds | Fee | KYC | Settlement | |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
Polymarket (via Prediction Market UK) Pick polygram.ink (preferred broker) |
100% | 0% | 0% (USDC on-chain) | No-KYC up to $1,500 | USDC, auto via UMA oracle | See live odds → |
Polymarket (direct) polymarket.com |
100% | 0% | 0% | Geo-blocked in US/UK/EU | USDC, on-chain | See live odds → |
Kalshi kalshi.com |
— | — | Up to 7% per trade | US-only, KYC required | USD | See live odds → |
Betfair Exchange betfair.com |
— | — | 2-5% commission | Full KYC from first trade | GBP / EUR | See live odds → |
Manifold Markets manifold.markets |
— | — | Play-money (mana) | None — play-money | Mana (no cash-out) | See live odds → |
Outcome probabilities
Current market-implied probability for each outcome, from the live order book.
| Outcome | Probability |
|---|---|
| Game 2 Winner | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 100% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 100% |
| Any Player Rampage | 100% |
| Ends in Daytime | 100% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 2? | 100% |
| First Blood in Game 2? | 91% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 2? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 2? | 90% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 45.5 in Game 2? | 90% |
| Any Player Ultra Kill | 10% |
| Any Player Rampage | 10% |
| Game 1 Winner | 0% |
| Both Teams Beat Roshan | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| Both Teams Destroy Barracks | 0% |
| First Blood in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 50.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 55.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 60.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 65.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 1? | 0% |
| Total Kills Over/Under 70.5 in Game 2? | 0% |
Market context
Team Spirit and PARIVISION face off in a best-of-two Dota 2 series at the Esports World Cup 2026 in Riyadh, starting at 09:00 UTC on 12 July. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the event described in the market description occurs, while a NO share pays out if it does not; here, the market asks whether “more markets” will be offered for this specific series, and the crowd currently assigns a 0% chance to YES.
Historically, “more markets” listings for Dota 2 matches appear only when the organiser or platform decides to expand betting coverage beyond the standard win/loss outcome. In comparable Esports World Cup matches, such expansion has been rare for Group Stage BO2s unless a team is a top-tier favourite or the match draws exceptional viewership. Team Spirit, ranked world number 7, defeated PARIVISION 1–0 in a BO1 at BLAST SLAM VII in May 2026, yet that result did not trigger additional markets for that event [1]. The current 0% probability suggests traders expect no expansion, consistent with past Group Stage BO2s where platforms stick to core outcomes.
Traders should monitor the official Esports World Cup schedule and any late announcements from the tournament organiser regarding betting partners or market rollouts. If the organiser confirms new markets before the settlement window closes at 15:10 UTC, the YES probability could shift sharply. No recent news source has announced expanded markets for this match, and bookmakers currently list only win probabilities for PARIVISION (38%) and Team Spirit (25%), with no mention of additional outcomes [10]. The dependency is purely on an official announcement, not in-game performance.
Methodology
This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.
Resolution & payout
At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.
On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.
FAQ
- Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?
- Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.
- Is this market available outside the US?
- Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.
- What's the difference between YES and NO shares?
- A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.
- How fast are USDC deposits?
- Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.
- How reliable are the quoted odds?
- The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.
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