Dota 2: Team Refuser vs Game Master (BO3) - The International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Team Refuser and Game Master will face off in a lower bracket quarterfinal of the International China Closed Qualifier Playoffs, a regional competition that determines which Chinese Dota 2 teams advance toward qualification for The International, the game's annual world championship. The match is scheduled for 17 June 2026 at 12:00 AM ET and will be played as a best-of-three series. In prediction-market terms, a YES share represents a bet that Team Refuser wins the match, whilst a NO share represents a bet that Game Master wins. The current crowd-implied probability of 100% YES suggests traders believe Team Refuser will prevail with near-certainty, though this extreme reading warrants scrutiny given the inherent volatility of esports competition.

Chinese Dota 2 regional qualifiers have historically produced unpredictable results, particularly in lower bracket play where teams face elimination pressure. Recent International qualifier cycles show that seeding and pre-tournament rankings often diverge from match outcomes, especially when lower-ranked teams employ unconventional strategies or exploit meta shifts. The 100% probability reading is unusual for any competitive match and may reflect incomplete market participation, late-stage trading patterns, or asymmetric information about team roster changes or player availability.

Traders should monitor official announcements from PGL or the Chinese Dota 2 Pro Circuit regarding any roster changes, player illness, or scheduling adjustments in the days preceding 17 June. Technical issues, server problems, or administrative delays could trigger the 50-50 tie resolution if the match is postponed beyond seven days without completion. Confirmation of both teams' final lineups and recent scrim results will provide concrete signals for reassessing the current probability.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.