Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Spirit Academy are due to meet Hive in a best-of-three lower-bracket playoff match in the European Pro League, and the market settles on the team that wins the series. In prediction-market terms, a **YES** share pays out if the named outcome happens; a **NO** share pays out if it does not, so the quoted probability is simply the crowd’s estimate of that result.

A 0% crowd-implied price usually means the market sees the outcome as effectively unavailable at the snapshot time, not that the team has no mathematical chance. Here, that reading is affected by the live match state: tournament listings show Spirit Academy v Hive as underway or scheduled very close to start time, with both sides placed in the same tier and recent match pages treating the contest as a current playoff fixture.[1][2][4] For newcomers, the useful comparison is that lower-bracket best-of-three matches are often volatile, because one poor draft or early lane phase can swing the whole series.

The main catalysts are straightforward: whether the match is actually completed, whether there is an official schedule change, and whether the series is delayed long enough to push settlement into the market’s 7-day fallback rules. Live match trackers and tournament pages are the clearest sources for start time, map count, and completion status, while recent form pages suggest both teams arrived after mixed results rather than dominant runs.[2][3][4] If the series is abandoned, not played, or left unresolved beyond the settlement window, the market can resolve 50-50 instead of to either team.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Dota 2: Spirit Academy vs Hive (BO3) - European Pro League Playoffs on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.