Dota 2: Execration vs Carstensz (BO3) - The International Southeast Asia Closed Qualifier Playoffs

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Market context

Execration and Carstensz are due to meet in a best-of-three upper-bracket quarter-final in the Southeast Asia closed qualifier for The International, so a **YES** share on this market pays out if Execration win the series, while a **NO** share pays out if Carstensz win. The contract also has a fallback: if the match is not played, ends level, or is pushed back more than seven days without a winner, it resolves 50-50 rather than to either side.

The current crowd-implied price of **0% YES** is hard to square with the pre-match information available. Strafe lists Execration as the clear public favourite, with 74% of user votes, and both teams are shown as closely matched in live event listings, including GosuGamers’ reporting that Execration are ranked 48th and Carstensz 47th. That combination usually argues for a live market that still has some uncertainty, rather than a certainty that Execration cannot win.[1][3]

For traders, the main catalysts are simple: whether the series starts on time, whether the tournament bracket and schedule hold, and whether either team has to withdraw or forfeit. The market’s wording matters because a started but incomplete series can still resolve differently from a pre-start cancellation, and the outcome rules around forfeits are not always symmetrical across venues.[2] If the official bracket progresses normally, the settlement is likely to be decided by the best-of-three result itself, which makes any late schedule changes or team news the key variables to watch.[1][3]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.