Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 24 June 2026, Yellow Submarine and Virtus.pro face off in the Upper Bracket quarterfinal 3 of The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs, a best-of-three Dota 2 match scheduled for 10:00 ET. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the event occurs—here, if Yellow Submarine wins—while a NO share pays out if it does not. The current crowd-implied probability of 90% YES suggests the market heavily favours Yellow Submarine, though such high confidence in esports can be fragile given the volatility of team performance and map-by-map swings.

Historically, similar 90% favourites in Dota 2 qualifiers have occasionally faltered when facing resilient opponents with strong head-to-head records; for instance, Virtus.pro has previously defeated Yellow Submarine in high-stakes matches, as noted in their match history on Liquipedia and GosuGamers [3][7]. Traders should monitor official team announcements for stand-in changes, as recent news confirms stand-ins ATF and Malr1ne competed for both teams in a prior premier series, which can alter dynamics significantly [8]. Key catalysts include the live score progression (currently 1–1 in the ongoing match [1]), Twitch or YouTube stream updates for real-time commentary [2], and any delays beyond the seven-day settlement window, which would trigger a 50–50 resolution. Always verify the match start time of 14:00 UTC on 24 June to avoid timing errors [2].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Dota 2: Yellow Submarine vs Virtus.pro (BO3) - The International Europe Closed Qualifier Playoffs on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.