LoL: PCIFIC vs Forsaken (BO3) - EMEA Masters Group B

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Active sub-markets

Market context

PCIFIC and Forsaken are scheduled to compete in a best-of-three League of Legends match within EMEA Masters Group B on 10 June at 2:00 PM ET. The winner advances through the group stage of this regional competition, which feeds into broader European esports qualification pathways. A YES share represents a bet that PCIFIC wins; a NO share represents a bet that Forsaken wins. The current market pricing at 100% YES suggests traders perceive PCIFIC as the near-certain favourite, though this extreme probability warrants scrutiny given the inherent volatility of competitive gaming.

EMEA Masters matches rarely settle at such skewed probabilities unless one team has a demonstrable competitive advantage or the opposing roster carries significant uncertainty. Historical precedent in regional League tournaments shows that 100% pricing typically reflects either a team's withdrawal, roster changes affecting the opponent, or public information about player availability. Without recent announcements of Forsaken's disqualification or roster collapse, this pricing may reflect incomplete market information or low liquidity rather than genuine certainty.

Traders should monitor official EMEA Masters schedules and team rosters through the settlement window closing 22:55 UTC on 10 June. Any last-minute roster swaps, player illness, or technical issues affecting either team could shift the underlying match outcome. The seven-day delay clause means matches postponed beyond 17 June without resolution trigger a 50-50 settlement, creating a secondary risk factor. Confirmation of both teams' participation and starting lineups closer to match time will be critical for validating the current probability.

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.