LoL: T1 vs Team Liquid (BO5) - Mid-Season Invitational Play-In

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 28 June 2026 at 3:00 AM ET, T1 and Team Liquid will face off in the Upper Bracket Semifinals 2 of the Mid-Season Invitational Play-In, a Best of 5 League of Legends match where the winner is crowned T1 and the loser Team Liquid. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the market resolves to T1 winning, while a NO share pays out if Team Liquid wins or the match is cancelled, tied, or delayed beyond seven days. The current crowd-implied probability of 84% YES suggests strong confidence in T1, a view echoed by Strafe users who predict a T1 victory with 93.6% of votes [1].

Historically, T1 has dominated this matchup, winning all four recorded encounters against Team Liquid, including a 1–0 victory in their last meeting on 8 December 2025 [1]. This pattern mirrors broader trends where LCK teams, particularly T1, hold the record for most MSI appearances and have consistently outperformed LCS representatives in cross-regional play [8]. While some analysts argue Team Liquid can beat T1 given current form [2], the weight of historical data and world rankings—T1 at 2nd globally versus Team Liquid at 59th [3]—frames the 84% probability as grounded in precedent rather than speculation.

Traders should monitor official match confirmations, roster announcements, and any schedule shifts before the 28 June start time, as delays or cancellations would trigger the 50–50 settlement clause. Recent coverage from InveGlobal confirms the match is set to kick off in Daejeon with T1 as the LCK entrant [8], but any disruption to the venue or timing could alter outcomes. With the settlement window ending 28 June 2026 at 09:00 UTC, attention to real-time updates from GosuGamers or Strafe will be critical for assessing whether the 84% YES probability holds or shifts as the match approaches [3][1].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.