Fed Decision in October?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Federal Reserve’s October 2026 meeting is the event that matters here: the market resolves to the size of any change in the **upper bound** of the target federal funds range compared with the level before that meeting, with non-standard moves rounded up to the nearest 25 basis points. In plain terms, a **Yes** share pays out if the October decision lands in the relevant outcome bucket the market is tracking; a **No** share pays out if it does not.

The current **1%** implied probability says traders think a move is very unlikely, but not impossible. That sits against a backdrop where Fed pricing has swung with inflation and labour data: Reuters reported in June that traders were assigning about a 60% chance of a hike by the October meeting, while earlier Reuters coverage after a September 2025 cut showed markets leaning towards further easing in October. More broadly, comparable Fed markets often reprice sharply after each FOMC statement, dot plot update, or major data release, so the same meeting can look very different a few months out than it does on decision day.

For this market, the main catalysts are the Fed’s own calendar, incoming inflation readings, payrolls, and any shift in the policy statement or projections. The Federal Reserve publishes its meeting calendar, and the October 2026 FOMC meeting is scheduled for 27–28 October, with the decision announced on 28 October.[1][14] Traders will also watch whether subsequent labour-market or price data change expectations for whether the FOMC holds, cuts, or hikes, because this market prices the actual change in the target range rather than a general sense of policy direction.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Fed Decision in October? across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

UK Frequently Asked Questions

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

Is Polymarket legal in the UK?

Polymarket is accessible to UK traders but is not UKGC-licensed. It operates under US CFTC jurisdiction. UK residents face no domestic legal prohibition on using it, but UKGC consumer protections do not apply. For UKGC-regulated alternatives, Betfair Exchange and Smarkets offer similar prediction-style markets.

Do I pay tax on prediction market profits in the UK?

UKGC-licensed platform profits (Betfair, Smarkets) are typically tax-free gambling winnings for UK individuals. Polymarket profits involve USDC crypto transactions, which HMRC treats as Capital Gains Tax events. Keep full transaction records and report via Self Assessment if gains exceed £3,000 per tax year.

How do I deposit on Polymarket from the UK?

UK traders typically fund Polymarket via Coinbase UK, Kraken or Revolut — buying USDC with GBP and transferring to a Polygon-compatible wallet (MetaMask, Coinbase Wallet). Polymarket's onboarding walks you through the bridging process. Typical GBP-to-USDC conversion costs 0.5–1%.