Fed decisions (Apr-Jul)

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the Federal Open Market Committee’s decision on whether to raise the upper bound of the target federal funds rate during its next three meetings in April, June, and July 2026. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if a qualifying rate hike occurs, while a NO share pays out if no hike happens; the current crowd-implied probability of 0% for YES suggests traders believe a hike is virtually impossible.

Historically, the Fed has only hiked rates when inflation spikes threaten its dual mandate of price stability and maximum employment, as seen in the aggressive tightening cycles of the 1980s and 2022–2023. Since the Fed cut rates by 0.75% in late 2025 and has held steady at 3.50%–3.75% since, the 0% probability aligns with recent patterns where the Fed prioritises economic stability over inflation fears, especially after the Iran war’s inflationary pressures began easing following a potential peace deal [1][5].

Traders should watch the FOMC’s policy statements and the “dot plot” for shifts in median rate projections, particularly any removal of language suggesting future cuts or new hints of hikes. The June 2026 meeting already saw Fed Chair Kevin Warsh hint at potential increases, with the dot plot eliminating forecasts for cuts in 2026 and raising the median end-of-year rate to 3.8% [1]. Key catalysts include the April 29, June 17, and July 29 meeting dates, alongside inflation data releases and any updates on Iran negotiations that could reignite inflationary pressures [1][4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.