Fed decisions (Jul–Oct)

Platform comparison

Market context

The Federal Reserve will hold three interest-rate decisions between late July and late October 2026. This market asks whether at least one of those meetings—scheduled for 28–29 July, 15–16 September, and 27–28 October—will result in a rate cut (a reduction in the upper bound of the target federal funds rate). A YES share pays out if any single qualifying cut occurs; a NO share pays out if all three meetings hold rates steady or raise them. The 0% crowd probability reflects market conviction that no cut is forthcoming across this window.

The Fed's recent trajectory provides essential context. After raising rates aggressively from 2022 through mid-2023 to combat inflation, the central bank has held the federal funds rate in a 5.25–5.50% range since July 2023, signalling a "higher for longer" stance. Historical precedent shows the Fed typically cuts rates only when economic weakness emerges or inflation risks recede substantially. Current labour-market data and core inflation readings remain relatively resilient, which has anchored expectations against near-term cuts.

Traders monitoring this market should track monthly employment reports, Consumer Price Index releases, and Fed communications ahead of each meeting. The July jobs report (due early August, after the first decision) and August inflation data will shape September's meeting. Any unexpected economic deterioration—a sharp rise in unemployment or a financial-stability shock—could shift the calculus. The Fed's own forward guidance, issued at each meeting, will signal whether officials see cuts as plausible before year-end.

Methodology

This page reviews Fed decisions (Jul–Oct) across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.