Fed decisions (Mar-Jun)

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The Federal Reserve's policy committee will convene three times between March and June 2026, and this market tracks whether interest rates will move up or down across those meetings. When you buy a YES share, you're betting that at least one rate increase will occur during this window; a NO share represents the opposite—that rates will either stay flat or decline. The upper bound of the federal funds rate is the ceiling of the Fed's target range, and any rise in that ceiling counts as a qualifying hike for settlement purposes.

Historical precedent suggests that three-meeting windows rarely see multiple directional changes. Since 2022, the Fed has typically maintained a consistent stance across consecutive FOMC gatherings, shifting only when economic conditions or inflation readings force a recalibration. The current 0% probability on YES reflects market expectations of either steady rates or cuts during this period, consistent with recent Fed communications emphasising a data-dependent approach to monetary policy as inflation moderates.

Traders should monitor February and May employment reports, consumer price inflation data, and any revisions to GDP growth forecasts, all of which feed directly into FOMC deliberations. The Fed's own Summary of Economic Projections, released alongside March's decision, will signal the committee's medium-term rate outlook and shape market positioning ahead of April and June meetings. Recent commentary from Fed officials has emphasised caution around premature tightening, though persistent wage growth or unexpected inflation spikes could alter that calculus before the June settlement deadline.

Methodology

We track Fed decisions (Mar-Jun) on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.