Fed rate hike by 2026?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event at the heart of this market is whether the Federal Reserve will raise the upper bound of its target federal funds rate between December 2025 and late 2026. A “YES” share means you believe a rate hike will occur; a “NO” share means you expect rates to stay flat or fall. Currently, the crowd-implied probability of a hike is 0%, reflecting a strong market consensus that the Fed is in a cutting cycle, not a tightening one.

Historically, the Fed raises rates when inflation is too high or the economy overheats, and cuts them when growth slows or unemployment rises. In late 2025, the Fed cut rates three times, lowering the target range to 3.50%–3.75%, with policymakers signalling only one more cut possible in 2026 [1][3]. This pattern mirrors past non-recessionary cutting cycles where rate hikes were rare until inflation re-emerged, making the current 0% probability for a hike consistent with recent policy behaviour [7].

Traders should watch upcoming FOMC meeting dates, the dot plot for policy projections, and key inflation data like the PCE index. Any surprise in employment figures or a sudden spike in inflation could shift expectations, though the Fed’s current bias remains firmly toward further cuts [2]. The next critical announcement will follow the December 2025 meeting, where the committee is expected to confirm its cautious, data-dependent stance [5]. Until new evidence emerges, the market’s zero-probability view on a hike is anchored in the Fed’s clear trajectory toward neutral policy.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.