Iraq vs. Norway - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

On 16 June 2026, Iraq and Norway will meet in a FIFA World Cup group-stage fixture. This market asks whether the final whistle will land on one of a pre-specified set of exact scorelines—say, 2–1 to Iraq, or 1–0 to Norway—or whether the result will fall outside those listed options, settling as "Any Other Score." A YES share pays out if the exact score matches; a NO share pays if it does not. At 4% implied probability, the crowd is pricing this outcome as unlikely, suggesting either that the listed scorelines are narrow or that the broader distribution of possible results is wide.

Iraq and Norway occupy vastly different competitive tiers. Norway has qualified for five World Cups (most recently 1998) and competes regularly in UEFA qualifying; Iraq has appeared twice (1986, 2018) and plays in the AFC confederation. Historical head-to-head meetings are scarce, but Norway's qualification record and squad depth typically favour the Scandinavian side. When lower-ranked teams face higher-ranked opponents in group play, draws and narrow defeats are common; blowouts are rarer. This distributional reality—many possible scorelines clustered around 1–0, 1–1, 2–0, 2–1—naturally depresses the probability of any single exact score.

Traders should monitor squad announcements and injury updates as the tournament approaches, particularly for Norway's key attacking players. Fixture congestion in the days before 16 June will also matter: a team playing three days earlier may field a rotated eleven. Confirmation of the group composition and final seeding, expected in late 2025, will clarify the stakes each side faces entering the match.

Methodology

We track Iraq vs. Norway - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.