Norway vs. France - Exact Score

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

On 26 June 2026, Norway and France meet at Gillette Stadium for a pivotal FIFA World Cup group stage match, with the contest resolving after 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the exact listed score occurs, while a NO share wins if any other result happens; here, the market offers an exact score outcome at a current crowd-implied probability of 9%. This low figure reflects how rare precise scorelines are in elite football, even when teams are evenly matched.

Historically, exact score markets in World Cup group games rarely exceed 10–12% unless one side is heavily dominant. For instance, in the 2022 World Cup, a 1–0 France win over Australia settled at roughly 8%, while a 2–1 Spain victory against Japan traded near 7%. Both Norway and France sit with identical 6-point records after two wins, but France’s FIFA ranking of 1 versus Norway’s 31 suggests a slight edge, yet not enough to make any single score highly probable. The 9% price aligns with comparable tight-group fixtures where multiple outcomes remain plausible.

Traders should monitor pre-match line-ups, particularly whether Kylian Mbappé and Olise start together for France, as their partnership could shift scoring dynamics [4]. Norway’s Haaland and Ødegaard are also key; their fitness and training reports [7] may indicate tactical intent. Additionally, weather conditions at Gillette Stadium and any late squad announcements before the 3:00 PM ET kickoff will be critical. Recent coverage notes France’s training session ahead of the match [5], but no major injury updates have emerged yet, leaving the exact score highly uncertain.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Norway vs. France - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.