Portugal vs. DR Congo - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Portugal and DR Congo are scheduled to meet in the group stage of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 17 June at 1:00 PM ET. This market asks whether the match will finish with an exact scoreline matching one of the pre-listed outcomes; if the final whistle comes at any other result, the market resolves to "Any Other Score" instead. A YES share pays out if Portugal and DR Congo produce that specific scoreline; a NO share pays out if they do not. The 6% crowd probability reflects the inherent rarity of predicting exact scores—even heavily favoured outcomes rarely exceed 15–20% likelihood in these markets, since dozens of possible results exist across the full range of plausible goals.

Historical World Cup group-stage matches involving African nations against European sides show wide variance in scorelines. DR Congo's previous World Cup appearance was in 2014, when they conceded 4–2 to Belgium and 2–1 to South Korea; Portugal's group-stage record includes 3–3 draws and 2–1 wins. Exact-score markets typically see the most liquidity around 1–0, 2–0, and 2–1 results, which account for roughly 40% of all group-stage outcomes across recent tournaments. Rarer scorelines like 4–0 or 0–0 carry odds reflecting their historical frequency rather than any team-specific edge.

Key variables for traders include squad availability closer to June 2026—injuries to Portugal's established players or late roster changes to either side—and the group composition, which determines whether either team enters with specific tactical or motivational pressures. Fixture congestion in the days before 17 June may affect squad rotation. The settlement window closes at 17:00 ET on match day, allowing roughly four hours after the final whistle for confirmation and resolution.

Methodology

We track Portugal vs. DR Congo - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.