Tunisia vs. Japan

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Tunisia face Japan in a FIFA World Cup group-stage match in Monterrey, with the market settling on whether the event resolves to **YES** if the specified match outcome occurs before the deadline. In prediction-market terms, a YES share pays out if the listed event happens, while a NO share pays out if it does not; at a crowd-implied probability of **24%**, the market is pricing Japan as the more likely winner and Tunisia as the underdog.[2][3]

That reading fits the available comparison points. ESPN lists Japan at **-190** on the moneyline, with Tunisia at **+600** and the draw at **+310**, which is broadly consistent with a low-but-not-negligible chance on Tunisia or a Tunisia-favoured upset market.[2] Head-to-head data also leans Japan’s way, with Japan winning three of the four recorded meetings since 2002, though Tunisia did beat Japan 3-0 in one prior match-up.[7] FIFA’s match-centre preview also flags Japan as the more confident side heading into the fixture.[3]

Traders should watch for late team news, confirmed line-ups and any group-stage dependency created by earlier results, because those can materially shift a one-off football price before kick-off. Flashscore notes Tunisia “need a response” and frames the game as potentially decisive for their progression hopes, which underscores why the market may move sharply if either side is forced into a must-win approach.[1] The settlement window closes at **2026-06-21T04:00:00Z**, so any pre-match clarification on squad availability or tactical changes before that time can matter more than broader tournament narratives.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Tunisia vs. Japan on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.