Tunisia vs. Netherlands - Exact Score

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Market context

On 25 June 2026 at 7:00 PM ET, Tunisia and the Netherlands will meet at Kansas City Stadium in their final Group F fixture of the FIFA World Cup 2026, with the market resolving strictly on the score after 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the exact listed score occurs, while a NO share pays out if any other outcome happens; here, the current crowd-implied probability of 9% suggests the market views that specific score as unlikely but not impossible. This setup mirrors how traders assess low-probability events in football, where even a single goal can shift outcomes dramatically.

Historically, matches between these sides have been tight: they have met three times previously with two draws and no Tunisia wins, indicating a pattern of defensive resilience that often leads to narrow scores[6]. Comparable Group F fixtures in recent World Cups, such as the 2018 encounter between France and Denmark (1–1), show how top-tier teams can neutralise each other in final group games, making exact scores rare and volatile. The 9% probability aligns with this trend, reflecting the difficulty of predicting precise outcomes when both teams prioritise avoiding defeat.

Traders should monitor pre-match line-ups and any late tactical announcements from both coaches, particularly Hervé Renard’s approach for Tunisia, who has emphasised defensive organisation ahead of this clash[2]. Recent training reports confirm Tunisia are preparing intensively, with no injury concerns reported as of today[3]. Additionally, weather conditions in Kansas City and potential referee tendencies could influence the game’s flow, so checking live updates from FIFA’s match centre before the settlement window closes on 25 June at 23:00 UTC is essential[4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.