Türkiye vs. United States - Exact Score

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Market context

On 25 June 2026, the United States men’s national team will face Türkiye in a FIFA World Cup Group D match at SoFi Stadium in Los Angeles, with the game kicking off at 10:00 PM ET. In prediction markets, a YES share means you profit if the exact outcome listed—here, a specific final score—occurs, while a NO share wins if any other result happens. This market settles on the score after 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time, excluding extra time and penalty shoot-outs, and currently carries a 5% implied probability for the listed score.

Historically, the USA and Türkiye have met only four times since 1991, with the USA winning the last two encounters and the only loss coming in 2003’s now-disbanded FIFA Confederations Cup [1]. Neither nation has faced the other at a World Cup before, making this the first such meeting in tournament history [3]. Given the USA’s 4-1 victory over Paraguay in their opening match [4] and Türkiye’s elimination from the group stage, the current 5% probability for a specific score aligns with the unpredictability of debut World Cup matchups between teams with limited direct history.

Traders should monitor pre-match line-ups, especially whether USA coach Mauricio Pochettino rotates his squad after two wins [2], and Türkiye’s tactical response as they seek a result to salvage pride. The match is confirmed for 26 June at 02:00 UTC at Los Angeles Stadium [5], with no indication of postponement. Recent coverage on FOX confirms live streaming availability and underscores the significance of this Group D clash [3]. Any late injury news or tactical shifts announced before kick-off could materially alter the expected scoreline and market pricing.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track Türkiye vs. United States - Exact Score on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.