Türkiye vs. United States - Halftime Result

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Market context

On Thursday, 25 June 2026, the U.S. Men’s National Team will face Türkiye at Los Angeles Stadium in Inglewood, California, in the final Group D match of the FIFA World Cup 2026. The prediction market asks whether Türkiye will lead at halftime—meaning they score more than the USA within the first 45 minutes plus stoppage time. A YES share pays out if that condition is met; a NO share pays out if it is not. With the crowd-implied probability of YES at 0%, the market strongly expects Türkiye will not lead at the break.

Historically, Türkiye has struggled in this tournament, having lost both prior Group D matches without scoring a goal, while the USA has won both, accumulating a +5 goal difference[2][5]. In their last meeting on 7 June 2025, the USA won 2–1 in Hartford, with Jack McGlynn scoring the American goal[3]. Given Türkiye’s elimination and lack of goals, and the USA’s strong form and already-secured Round of 32 spot, a halftime lead for Türkiye appears highly improbable, aligning with the 0% probability[5][6].

Traders should monitor pre-match line-ups and any late tactical announcements from either side, as well as weather conditions at Los Angeles Stadium, which could influence early play. The USA’s coach may opt for a conservative approach given their group win, while Türkiye, though eliminated, could push for a morale boost. Recent coverage from NPR confirms the USA’s group victory is assured regardless of this match’s outcome, reducing urgency for aggressive early tactics[5]. No major injury updates have been reported as of 24 June, but final team news will be released shortly before kickoff at 10 p.m. ET[3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews Türkiye vs. United States - Halftime Result across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Market UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.