Uruguay vs. Cabo Verde - Exact Score

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Uruguay meet Cabo Verde in a Group H World Cup fixture at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami, with the market settling on the exact score after 90 minutes plus stoppage time only, so extra time and penalties do not count.[1][6] In prediction-market terms, a **YES** share pays out if the match finishes on the listed scoreline; a **NO** share pays out if it does not. With crowd-implied YES at 6%, the market is saying that a very specific score is judged unlikely, which is normal for exact-score contracts because there are many possible losing outcomes and only one winning one.

The closest historical guide is the way football scorelines cluster around a few low-scoring results: 1-0, 1-1, 2-0 and 2-1 tend to be the most common exact scores in international matches, while more unusual margins and scoreless draws are less frequent. Uruguay are generally the more established side, with a long World Cup pedigree and a more familiar tournament profile, whereas Cabo Verde are better known as outsiders in elite global competition.[7][9] That kind of mismatch often keeps exact-score markets low, because even if the favourite is expected to win, there are still many plausible final scores.

Traders should watch the confirmed line-ups, any late injury or suspension news, and the in-play team news released before kick-off, because exact-score probabilities can move sharply when a key attacker or goalkeeper is ruled out.[1][5] The match page shows FIFA’s scheduled kick-off as Uruguay v Cabo Verde on 21 June, with the settlement window tied to completion of that fixture, so any postponement would matter directly for timing.[1] Matchday conditions at Miami, including heat, travel load and squad rotation across a long tournament schedule, can also influence whether the game becomes tighter or more open than the pre-match price suggests.[3][6]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.