S&P 500 (SPY) closes above … on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

On 13 July 2026, the S&P 500 exchange-traded fund (SPY) will close at some price. This market asks whether that closing price will exceed a specific threshold—currently unspecified in the market title. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the event occurs; a NO share pays out if it does not. The 0% crowd probability suggests traders believe the threshold is set high enough that closure above it is extremely unlikely, or the market has attracted minimal trading activity so far.

Historical volatility in the S&P 500 provides context for assessing single-day price targets. Over the past decade, daily moves of 1–2% have been routine during periods of economic uncertainty or earnings surprises, whilst moves exceeding 3% occur roughly 5–10 times annually. The settlement window closing at 20:00 UTC on 13 July means the market resolves on the official close of US equity markets (16:00 ET). If the threshold is set substantially above the prevailing price of SPY at market open on that date, the probability reflects the statistical rarity of such large single-day rallies absent extraordinary positive catalysts.

Traders monitoring this market should track macroeconomic data releases scheduled for early July 2026, including any US employment reports or Federal Reserve communications that could shift equity sentiment sharply. Corporate earnings announcements from major index constituents in the days preceding 13 July may also influence positioning. Currency movements, particularly USD strength, and developments in international markets during the Asian and European sessions on 13 July itself could establish momentum heading into the US close.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.