Will Anthropic’s valuation hit … by December 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The underlying event is whether Anthropic’s private-market valuation, as officially recorded by Nasdaq Private Market (NPM), reaches a specific dollar threshold before 31 December 2026. A YES share pays out if that NPM print hits or exceeds the amount; a NO share pays out if it does not. In this market, the crowd assigns just 12% probability to the YES outcome, implying scepticism that the valuation will climb to the listed figure in the remaining months.

Historical precedent shows secondary valuations can surge quickly once enterprise demand and revenue visibility align. Anthropic already crossed $1 trillion on NPM in May 2026, hitting $965 billion in a primary round and later reaching $1.14 trillion by July 2026, an 18% jump above its Series H-1 price [2][10]. Comparable cases like OpenAI’s secondary prints demonstrate that NPM data often outpaces headline financing announcements, with traders leaning on gated NPM prints rather than press releases to set prices [4].

Traders should watch for new NPM updates published daily at 1:00 PM ET, as well as any fresh financing rounds or enterprise revenue disclosures that could trigger a re-pricing. Recent coverage notes Anthropic’s valuation surge stems from strong enterprise applications, rapidly growing revenue, and a clearer path to profitability, all factors that could push the NPM print higher before year-end [8]. The market resolves strictly on NPM data, not on IPO announcements or speculative headlines [6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.