WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above … on July 14?

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event determining this market is whether West Texas Intermediate crude oil settles above a specific price threshold when trading closes on 14 July 2026. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if that condition is met, while a NO share pays out if it is not; the current crowd-implied probability of 100% YES suggests traders are virtually certain the price will exceed the target. This near-total certainty often reflects a strong consensus on recent price momentum rather than a guarantee, as historical cases show that even high-probability markets can shift if unexpected volatility occurs near settlement.

Recent data shows WTI trading near $78.31 per barrel as of 13 July, with technical forecasts for 14 July projecting an uptrend and a take-profit target of $78.00, reinforcing the bullish sentiment behind the 100% probability [1][2]. Traders should monitor the official closing price released by major exchanges like the New York Mercantile Exchange, as well as any late-day announcements from the US Energy Information Administration regarding inventory levels or supply disruptions. While no specific news event is cited for today, routine dependencies include geopolitical developments affecting global supply chains and macroeconomic indicators such as US dollar strength, which inversely impacts commodity pricing.

Sources: 1 · 2

Methodology

We track WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above … on July 14? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.