WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above 2026 on June 11?

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Market context

On 11 June 2026, WTI crude oil will close at a specific price level. In a prediction market, you buy a YES share if you believe the closing price will exceed that threshold, or a NO share if you expect it to fall short. Each share settles at £1 if your prediction proves correct, or £0 if it does not. The settlement window closes at 21:00 UTC on that date, using the official WTI settlement price published by the New York Mercantile Exchange.

The 0% crowd probability suggests traders currently assign negligible odds to an above-threshold close. Historical volatility in crude markets—particularly around geopolitical events, OPEC+ production announcements, and US inventory data—has routinely shifted prices by 5–10% within single trading sessions. In 2022, WTI swung from $76 to $130 per barrel across six months; more recently, prices have oscillated between $70 and $90 as demand forecasts and supply discipline have competed for market attention. A probability of zero implies either an extremely high price threshold relative to current spot levels, or that the crowd views June 2026 fundamentals as exceptionally stable.

Key catalysts heading into June include OPEC+ production decisions (typically announced quarterly), US Federal Reserve policy signals affecting dollar strength and real rates, and global economic growth expectations. Tropical storm activity in the Gulf of Mexico, where roughly 17% of US crude production originates, can trigger sharp intraday moves. Traders should monitor weekly US crude inventory reports from the Energy Information Administration, released each Wednesday, as these often drive directional conviction in the final weeks before settlement.

Methodology

We track WTI Crude Oil (WTI) closes above 2026 on June 11? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.