WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 13?

Platform comparison

Market context

This market asks whether the closing price of West Texas Intermediate crude oil futures on 13 July 2026 will be higher or lower than the previous trading day's close. A "YES" share pays out if the price rises; a "NO" share pays out if it falls. The crowd is currently pricing this as near-certain to move upward, reflected in the 100% implied probability for YES. In prediction markets, such extreme probabilities typically signal either very strong conviction about directional momentum or insufficient liquidity to allow contrarian traders to adjust the odds downward.

Day-to-day oil price movements are notoriously volatile and difficult to forecast with precision. Historical data shows that WTI closes higher roughly 50–52% of trading days over extended periods, meaning a single-day directional bet carries substantial noise. The current 100% reading is unusual and suggests either that traders expect a specific catalyst to drive prices upward on that date, or that the market has experienced one-sided order flow with limited participation from sceptical traders willing to short the YES side.

Catalysts affecting crude on any given trading day include OPEC+ production announcements, US inventory data releases (typically Wednesdays), geopolitical developments affecting supply routes, and broader equity-market sentiment. The US Energy Information Administration publishes weekly petroleum status reports on Wednesdays; if one falls on or immediately before 13 July 2026, it could influence intraday volatility and closing levels. Traders should monitor the settlement window closely, as final price determination depends on the official closing quote for the active-month futures contract at the New York Mercantile Exchange.

Methodology

We track WTI Crude Oil (WTI) Up or Down on July 13? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.