Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Felix Gill and Hugo Gaston are scheduled to meet in the second round of the Nottingham grass-court tournament on 15 June 2026. A prediction market on this match allows traders to buy YES or NO shares: a YES share pays out if Gill advances, whilst a NO share pays out if Gaston advances. The current crowd-implied probability sitting at 100% YES suggests traders expect Gill to win, though the settlement window extends to 22 June to account for scheduling delays or postponements beyond the original date.

Gill, a British player competing on home soil, carries the advantage of familiarity with grass surfaces and local conditions—factors that historically favour domestic competitors in British tournaments. Gaston, a French player with ATP experience, has shown inconsistency at grass-court events, though he remains capable of competitive performances. Historical precedent from similar second-round matches at Nottingham shows that seeding, recent form, and surface preference typically drive outcomes; the 100% probability reading suggests the market has already priced in a substantial gap in either ranking or recent results between the two players.

Traders should monitor official tournament draws and any late withdrawals or injury announcements from either player in the week preceding the match. Weather conditions on grass courts can shift match dynamics unexpectedly, and the settlement rules allow for a 50–50 resolution if the match is delayed beyond seven days or abandoned without completion. Recent ATP and Challenger circuit results for both players will provide the most concrete data for reassessing the current probability as the match date approaches.

Methodology

We track Nottingham 2: Felix Gill vs Hugo Gaston on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.