Egypt vs. IR Iran

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Active sub-markets

Market context

The upcoming FIFA World Cup match between Egypt and IR Iran on Friday, 26 June 2026, is the real-world event underpinning this prediction market. The game, held at Seattle Stadium with an 8 p.m. PT kickoff, will determine knockout qualification for Group G, where Egypt currently leads with four points and Iran sits at two. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the market’s outcome is true (here, if Egypt wins), while a NO share pays out if it is false (if Iran wins or the match ends in a draw). The current crowd-implied probability of 25% YES suggests traders believe Iran is more likely to prevail or draw, despite Egypt’s stronger group position.

Historically, Egypt and IR Iran have met only twice, with their last encounter in 2000, making this a rare head-to-head in a high-stakes tournament. Iran has appeared in seven World Cups but has never progressed past the group stage, whereas Egypt’s recent form includes two wins in their last five matches against Iran, scoring 1.2 points per game on average. This sparse history and Iran’s consistent group-stage exits frame the 25% probability as a cautious bet on Egypt’s underdog status, given their superior group standing and recent head-to-head dominance.

Traders should monitor final squad announcements, injury updates, and weather conditions at Seattle Stadium before the match, as these can shift momentum. Recent team news from FIFA confirms both nations have arrived with full supporter contingencies, creating a vibrant atmosphere that may influence performance [6]. Additionally, broadcast details on FOX and streaming via FOX One [1] mean real-time odds could adjust as pre-match analysis unfolds. With knockout qualification on the line, any late tactical shifts or player fatigue will be critical catalysts for the market’s outcome.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.