Morocco vs. Haiti - Exact Score

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Market context

On 24 June 2026, Morocco and Haiti will meet at Mercedes-Benz Stadium in Atlanta for a FIFA World Cup Group C match, with the contest kicking off at 6pm local time. This prediction market asks whether the final score after 90 minutes of regulation plus stoppage time matches one of the explicitly listed outcomes; a YES share means you believe the exact score will occur, while a NO share means you believe it will not. The current crowd-implied probability of 5% YES suggests traders view the specific score as unlikely, though the market remains open if the match is postponed and will only close upon completion.

Historically, Morocco has dominated Haiti in recent encounters, including a 3-0 friendly victory in October 2025, which frames how to interpret the low 5% probability for any specific score beyond a Morocco win[3]. Comparable World Cup group matches between teams with such a form gap often produce scores like 2-0 or 3-1, yet the wide range of possible outcomes means any single exact score naturally carries a small probability, as seen in similar fixtures where the market settled on "Any Other Score" due to the unpredictability of goal timing and defensive errors.

Traders should monitor official line-up announcements and any late schedule changes, as Morocco’s recent hard-fought win against Scotland may impact player fatigue for this final Group C game[7]. Additionally, watch for weather updates in Atlanta, as Mercedes-Benz Stadium does not permit strollers and may have specific conditions affecting play, though no major disruptions have been reported yet[4]. The settlement window ends on 24 June 2026 at 22:00 UTC, so any postponement will extend the market’s life until the match is completed, making real-time news from FIFA and Sky Sports critical for timing entries[2][5].

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Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). The odds column is filled only where we have clean data — that avoids the made-up numbers that get a network demoted when search engines cross-check against the source venue.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.