Türkiye vs. United States

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Türkiye and the United States are due to meet in the final group-stage match of the 2026 FIFA World Cup on 25 June in Los Angeles, with the settlement window closing shortly after kick-off. In this market, a **YES** share pays out if the event happens as defined in the contract, while **NO** pays if it does not; the current crowd price of 25% suggests traders see the match as an underdog outcome for one side, but not a remote one.[3][4]

Past meetings give a small but useful frame: the USMNT has played Türkiye four times, with a 2-1-1 record and six goals scored to five conceded, and the Americans won the last two encounters.[2] That history is limited, so it is better read as a reference point than a forecast model. More relevant is the tournament context: the United States are co-hosts and already know their Group D path, while Türkiye secured their place via the UEFA playoff route after beating Kosovo 1-0.[3] FIFA’s expanded 48-team format also means group-stage qualification dynamics can be more volatile than in older World Cups.[3]

Traders should watch squad announcements, injuries, and any changes to the teams’ prior group results, because this is the last match in the group schedule and line-ups can be affected by qualification needs or rotation.[3] Venue and timing are already fixed at SoFi Stadium, Los Angeles, and ticket listings confirm the 7pm local start.[1] Recent U.S. Soccer coverage also shows the federation has already been publicising Türkiye as a scheduled opponent, which reduces fixture uncertainty but leaves performance risk heavily tied to team news closer to matchday.[2]

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote (Polymarket), four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.