US-Iran deal text released by 2026?

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Market context

On 14 June 2026, the United States and Iran announced a written diplomatic agreement, with a signing ceremony scheduled for 19 June. This market asks whether any portion of that agreement's text will be publicly released by 1 July 2026. A YES share pays out if the text becomes widely available; a NO share pays out if it remains undisclosed or only partially leaked. The 90% crowd probability reflects strong expectations that at least some text will surface within the fortnight.

Historical precedent suggests high disclosure likelihood. The Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) signed in 2015 saw its full text released within days of announcement, published by the US State Department and international media outlets. Even when negotiations remain sensitive, the political pressure to demonstrate transparency—particularly in democracies where legislatures demand scrutiny—typically forces release. Iran's government has also historically published agreement texts domestically to justify deals to its own constituencies. The main counterfactual would be a deliberately confidential accord, rare in US-Iran diplomacy given the need for domestic political legitimacy on both sides.

Traders should monitor official US State Department and Iranian Foreign Ministry announcements immediately following the 19 June signing. Congressional requests for the text, particularly from Senate Foreign Relations Committee members, often accelerate public release timelines. Media organisations including Reuters and AP have standing relationships with State Department officials that frequently yield early access to diplomatic documents. Any statement from either government explicitly committing to confidentiality would materially shift probabilities downward, though such declarations are uncommon for bilateral agreements of this magnitude.

Methodology

This page reviews US-Iran deal text released by 2026? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Market UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.