Highest temperature in NYC on June 9?

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Market context

On 9 June 2026, the highest temperature recorded at LaGuardia Airport will fall into one of several defined ranges. A YES share in any given range pays out if that range contains the actual peak temperature for the day; a NO share pays out if the peak falls elsewhere. The settlement will draw from Weather Underground's historical data for that specific station and date, making the outcome verifiable and final once the day passes.

New York City's June weather typically ranges between 70°F and 85°F, though heat waves can push readings into the low 90s. Historical June 9th data shows considerable year-to-year variation: some years record highs in the mid-70s during cooler springs, whilst others see temperatures climb toward 85°F or beyond. The current crowd probability of 0% YES suggests traders are either awaiting range options to be published or reflecting genuine uncertainty about which specific bracket will resolve true. Comparable June days at LaGuardia over the past decade provide the most reliable baseline for calibration.

The key variable affecting June 9th's temperature will be the position of the jet stream and any high-pressure system tracking across the Northeast in early June 2026. The National Weather Service typically issues extended forecasts five to ten days ahead; traders should monitor these releases in late May and early June for signals of unusual warmth or cool conditions. Atlantic tropical activity, though rare so early in the season, could introduce moisture and cloud cover that suppresses daytime highs. Seasonal climate patterns—including the Atlantic Multidecadal Oscillation phase—influence broader temperature tendencies but offer limited precision for a single day eighteen months forward.

Methodology

This page reviews Highest temperature in NYC on June 9? across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Market UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.