Anthropic IPO by 2027?

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Active sub-markets

Market context

Anthropic, the AI safety company founded in 2021, has not yet filed for a public listing. This market asks whether the company will list shares on a public securities exchange—allowing ordinary investors to buy and sell them—by 1 July 2027. A YES share pays out if Anthropic completes an initial public offering (IPO) or direct listing by that deadline; a NO share pays out if it does not, or if it is acquired by an already-public company instead. The 1% crowd probability reflects scepticism about a near-term listing, though the settlement window extends nearly three years into the future.

Most venture-backed software and infrastructure companies take seven to ten years from founding to IPO, though the timeline varies sharply by sector and funding trajectory. Anthropic raised $5.3 billion in funding as of late 2024, placing it among the most heavily capitalised private companies globally. Comparable exits—including OpenAI's ongoing funding rounds without a public listing, and Databricks' continued private status despite $43 billion valuation—suggest that well-funded, high-growth firms often remain private longer than historical norms. The company has not publicly signalled IPO plans or timelines.

Traders should monitor announcements regarding Anthropic's financial performance, regulatory filings, and any acquisition interest from larger technology firms. Quarterly funding announcements, changes in leadership, or statements from the board about capital strategy could shift expectations. The company's profitability trajectory and competitive position relative to OpenAI and other large language model developers will also influence investor appetite for a public offering. No formal SEC filings or exchange applications have been reported as of early 2025.

Methodology

We track Anthropic IPO by 2027? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.