0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz remains a critical chokepoint for global energy, yet recent weeks have seen shipping traffic collapse to near-zero levels amid escalating conflict between the US and Iran. This market asks whether IMF PortWatch will record a single day with zero ship transits between now and July 2026. A YES share pays out if that zero-traffic day occurs; a NO share pays out if at least one ship is recorded every day through the settlement window.

Historically, the strait has seen brief closures, such as the 24-hour shutdown on 22 April 2026, but sustained zero-traffic days are rare even during crises [5]. However, WTO tracker data shows crude exports through Hormuz have fallen 90% since the 17 June deal, with zero activity recorded on 10 of the last 19 days [1]. This pattern suggests the current 0% crowd-implied probability for a zero-day may be overly optimistic given the volatility.

Traders should monitor the 19 July deadline for the US to lift its naval blockade of Iranian ports, a key term in the June 17 memorandum of understanding [2]. Any delay or reversal in this commitment could trigger renewed closures. Additionally, watch for announcements on war-risk insurance premiums, which have surged over 16 times normal rates, and reports of ships disabling AIS tracking to avoid detection [5]. These factors could precipitate the zero-traffic day the market is betting on.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track 0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by..? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.