Iran commits not to attack ships in Hormuz by Sunday?

Platform comparison

Market context

A YES share in this market pays out if Iran’s government or an authorised representative publicly commits not to attack ships in the Strait of Hormuz before the settlement deadline; a NO share pays if that commitment is never made. Here, the crowd assigns only a 2% chance to YES, reflecting deep scepticism that Tehran will issue such an unambiguous pledge while retaining leverage over the waterway.

Historically, Iran has refused to relinquish control of the Strait, which carries roughly one-fifth of global oil, and has repeatedly framed access as conditional on non-hostile behaviour from the US and Israel. In recent weeks, the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps attacked three commercial vessels and later announced the strait was closed again, citing US and Israeli actions, while Iranian lawmakers stated Iran would “never” give up authority over the passage. This pattern of conditional access and retaliatory closures makes a blanket, unconditional commitment to stop all attacks appear unlikely, consistent with the low implied probability.

Traders should watch for any official Iranian statement declaring a present or future policy not to attack ships transiting the Strait, particularly ahead of or during the US–Iran talks scheduled in Oman and Switzerland. The US has explicitly demanded a public pledge that the Strait is open and that ships will not be targeted, but Iran has refused to abandon its administrative control or charging regime, which includes demands of up to $2 million for safe passage. A qualifying announcement would need to be declarative and unambiguous; until such a statement emerges, the market’s NO outcome remains the dominant expectation [1][2][9].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

Methodologically we separate two layers: the live probability (Polymarket mid-price) and the platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement currency, payment rails). That keeps the comparison honest — a single canonical probability across the row, with the venue-by-venue trade-offs spelt out in the columns next to it.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.