US x Iran Effective Ceasefire by 2026? (2 week pause)

Platform comparison

Market context

A two-week pause in US military strikes against Iran is the real-world event this market tracks, where a “YES” share pays out if the US takes no qualifying military action for 14 consecutive days before August 2026, while a “NO” share wins if any strike occurs within that window. The crowd currently prices this pause at just 5%, reflecting deep scepticism about durability given recent history.

Past ceasefires between the US and Iran have repeatedly collapsed under pressure. A two-week truce agreed in April 2026 was breached within days by renewed US strikes and Iranian missile attacks across the Gulf, according to Al Jazeera’s timeline of hostilities during that ceasefire [7]. Similarly, a June 2026 agreement mediated by Pakistan and Qatar, which extended the ceasefire by 60 days, faced immediate uncertainty when President Trump posted threatening remarks on Truth Social, fueling doubts about its longevity [3]. These fragile precedents explain why traders assign such a low probability to another uninterrupted 14-day lull.

Traders should monitor official announcements from US Central Command, scheduled peace talks in Geneva, and any social media posts from President Trump that could signal policy shifts. Renewed strikes reported on 9 July 2026, including US attacks in Iran and Iranian retaliatory strikes, already threatened the existing ceasefire arrangement, highlighting the volatility of the situation [4]. The lifting of sanctions on Iranian oil via a 60-day Treasury license and Iran’s agreement to allow IAEA inspectors are potential stabilisers, but their impact remains uncertain amid ongoing distrust [3].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.