Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz, a 54-kilometre waterway between Iran and Oman, handles roughly one-third of global seaborne oil trade. This market asks whether any country will send military vessels through that chokepoint by the end of July 2026. A YES share pays out if credible reporting confirms at least one warship transit; a NO share pays out if no such transit occurs. The 4% crowd probability reflects genuine rarity: routine commercial traffic flows through constantly, but deliberate military transits are geopolitically significant acts that governments announce or confirm through official channels.

Historical precedent matters here. The United States Navy conducts Freedom of Navigation operations through the strait roughly annually, most recently in 2024, explicitly challenging Iran's claimed territorial limits. British, French, and other allied navies have similarly transited in recent years, though not on a fixed schedule. Iran itself occasionally moves naval assets through its own strait. The low probability suggests traders view a fresh military transit as unlikely within eighteen months, possibly because recent transits have already occurred or because escalation sufficient to trigger new ones remains improbable.

Catalysts to monitor include US-Iran tensions, sanctions announcements, or regional conflicts that might prompt coalition naval responses. Any formal declaration of new Freedom of Navigation operations, typically announced by the US Department of Defense, would signal high likelihood of resolution. Conversely, diplomatic thaws or reduced regional volatility would reinforce the NO case. News from defence ministries or credible maritime-tracking sources will be decisive for settlement.

Methodology

We track Which countries will send warships through the Strait of Hormuz by July 31? across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.