Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Platform comparison

Market context

Ships are currently unable to pass through the Strait of Hormuz, a strategic chokepoint carrying roughly 20% of global oil, due to active conflict between the US and Iran. This market asks whether transit calls will return to a normal 7-day average of at least 60 ships by the end of June 2026. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if this event occurs, while a NO share wins if it does not; the current crowd-implied probability of 0% suggests traders see no realistic path to reopening before the deadline.

Historical data frames this bleak outlook, as traffic dropped precipitously from a normal 120 passages to near zero during the crisis, with only seven vessels passing in a single day despite a ceasefire in April[4]. Even after a brief reopening on 21 April, the strait closed again the next day, leaving over 150 ships stranded and maritime traffic at less than 10% of usual volumes[6]. The US naval blockade remains in place, and Tehran has warned vessels to stay within its territorial waters, meaning the current closure is unlikely to lift without a definitive peace deal that has not yet materialised[2].

Traders must watch the US-Iran memorandum of understanding, which guarantees immediate navigation restart only if the US lifts its blockade by 19 July, a date after the market’s settlement window[5]. Recent reports confirm that despite a ceasefire framework, shipping remains at a virtual standstill, with Iran continuing to impose tolls and restrict routes[4]. Without a formal agreement removing the blockade and ensuring safe passage before 30 June, the threshold of 60 daily calls cannot be met, validating the 0% probability[6].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.