Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of June?

Platform comparison

Market context

The Strait of Hormuz, a 54-nautical-mile chokepoint between Iran and Oman, handles roughly one-third of global seaborne oil trade. A "YES" share in this market pays out if the seven-day average of daily ship transits reaches 60 or higher by end of June 2026; a "NO" share pays out if it remains below that threshold. The current 22% probability for YES reflects market scepticism that traffic will fully normalise within eighteen months. Understanding this requires knowing what "normal" means: pre-disruption baselines, typically 50–70 daily transits, were interrupted by regional tensions, including drone and missile attacks on shipping, US military presence increases, and sanctions-related trade patterns.

Historical precedent matters here. The Strait experienced significant traffic reductions during the 2022–2024 period following escalations in the Israel–Gaza conflict and Houthi attacks on vessels. Recovery timelines from comparable disruptions—such as the 2019 tanker attacks or the 2011–2015 sanctions era—show that normalisation typically requires 12–24 months once triggering tensions ease. However, structural changes in shipping routes, including increased use of alternative passages and rerouting around the region, can persist even after security improves, potentially keeping baseline traffic below historical levels.

Traders should monitor announcements from the International Maritime Organization, US Central Command statements on regional security, and any diplomatic breakthroughs between Iran and Western powers. Recent reports from maritime intelligence firms indicate that whilst some tanker traffic has resumed, container and general cargo vessels remain cautious. The IMF Portwatch data publication schedule is weekly; reaching 60 transits would require sustained confidence in passage safety and a reversal of current risk premiums that have kept many operators away from the route.

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to PolyGram, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like PolyGram trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.