MLB: Most Home Runs (Team)

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event is which MLB team will hit the most home runs during the 2026 regular season, with the market resolving to that team’s name. A YES share means you believe the specific team named in the market will win; a NO share means you believe they will not. With the crowd-implied probability at just 2% YES, the market views this outcome as highly unlikely, suggesting the named team is not among the projected power leaders.

Historical projections for 2026 show Shohei Ohtani leading all players at 52 home runs, while only four players—Ohtani, Kyle Schwarber (43), Aaron Judge (42), and Cal Raleigh (41)—are expected to reach 40-plus homers [1]. The Boston Red Sox, often a lower-power team, have the lowest team projection at just 18 home runs [1]. Teams with multiple 40-HR candidates or deep power lineups, such as the Dodgers or Yankees, typically dominate this category, making a 2% probability consistent with a team lacking such firepower.

Traders should monitor spring training reports, roster announcements, and injury updates affecting key hitters, as these directly impact team home run totals. Recent projections highlight Schwarber and Judge as top candidates, so any news altering their playing time or lineup status could shift expectations [6]. Additionally, watch for schedule dependencies like home-game frequency at hitter-friendly parks, which can influence seasonal totals. The market settles on 11 October 2026, so all data up to that date counts.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

We track MLB: Most Home Runs (Team) across the five venues with material prediction-market liquidity. The probability shown is the live Polymarket mid; the comparison rows summarise how each venue treats the underlying contract — fees, KYC thresholds, settlement currency, deposit options. The highlighted row marks the cheapest route into Polymarket's order book.

Resolution & payout

Settlement runs on-chain. Polymarket's contract logic separates YES and NO shares as conditional tokens; at resolution the winning share lifts to $1.00 and the losing one to $0. The outcome input comes from the UMA Optimistic Oracle, which secures against bad resolution with a bond + dispute window.

Once finalised, the smart contract pays USDC to the holders' wallets within minutes — no withdrawal fees beyond Polygon network gas. Kalshi settles in USD via CFTC clearance, Betfair in account currency net of commission, Manifold in play-money mana with no cash-out.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.