MLB: Stolen Bases Leader

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

The real-world event is straightforward: which player will steal the most bases during the 2026 Major League Baseball regular season. In prediction markets, a YES share means you believe the market will resolve to a specific outcome (here, that a particular player wins the stolen bases title), while a NO share means you believe they will not. This market currently shows an 8% crowd-implied probability for the YES outcome, reflecting the difficulty of predicting the leader among dozens of contenders before the season ends on 28 September 2026.

Historically, stolen base leaders often emerge from players with elite speed and high base-stealing attempts, such as Nasim Nuñez, who already leads the 2026 season with 31 steals, or Bobby Witt Jr. with 28 [1][2]. Past seasons show that early leaders can be overtaken if injuries occur or if pitchers adjust their delivery to deter steals, making the 8% probability a cautious reflection of the volatility in this stat. Fantasy projections suggest Elly De La Cruz and Chandler Simpson could reach 41 steals by season end, but these remain uncertain [4].

Traders should monitor weekly stolen base leader updates, injury reports for speed-focused players, and manager announcements on base-stealing strategies. Recent coverage from CBS Sports highlights the tight race between top contenders and the impact of defensive adjustments [2]. Key dependencies include the number of games played by each player, as fewer games reduce total opportunities, and the frequency of caught stealings, which acts as a tiebreaker if multiple players lead [5]. Watch for mid-season projections updates from FantasyPros, which may shift market sentiment as the season progresses [4].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page reviews MLB: Stolen Bases Leader across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Market UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.