"Minions & Monsters" Opening Weekend Box Office

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event at the heart of this market is the domestic five-day opening weekend gross of the animated film *Minions & Monsters*, which began releasing on Wednesday, 1 July 2026. In prediction markets, a YES share pays out if the film’s final box office falls within the higher bracket defined by the market (in this case, the bracket that includes the current crowd-implied 86% probability), while a NO share pays out if it lands below that threshold. This market settles once the official, non-estimate figures for 1–5 July are confirmed via The Numbers website, with any value between two brackets resolving to the higher range.

Historically, Illumination’s *Despicable Me* franchise has delivered strong July holiday openings, with prior sequels often exceeding $70 million over five days when backed by wide releases and positive audience scores. *Minions & Monsters* has already grossed $25 million domestically in just two days, including a $14.23 million opening day and an A– CinemaScore, suggesting it is tracking toward the $80 million five-day estimate cited by Variety [1]. Comparable animated releases in recent years, such as *The Super Mario Bros. Movie*, also leveraged the July 4th weekend to surpass $100 million domestically, framing the current 86% YES probability as well-supported by early performance data [2].

Traders should monitor the final daily box office reports for 4 and 5 July, as any significant drop in weekend turnout could push the total below the $80 million target. Key dependencies include the film’s performance against competitors like *Supergirl*, which is expected to face a 60% drop in its second weekend [1], and whether the final figures confirm the current $62.6 million global run as a stable baseline [2]. No major announcements are pending, but the settlement hinges entirely on the official domestic tally from The Numbers once the five-day window closes.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.