"Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office

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Active sub-markets

Market context

A sixth instalment in the Scary Movie franchise is scheduled for theatrical release on 6 June 2026. This market asks traders to forecast the film's opening weekend domestic box office gross across the United States and Canada, measured from Friday 5 June through Sunday 7 June. Settlement relies on final figures published by The Numbers, a box office tracking service, rather than studio estimates. A YES share represents a bet that the opening weekend will exceed a specified threshold; a NO share bets it will fall below. The market currently shows 0% implied probability, suggesting traders believe the film will underperform its designated bracket.

The Scary Movie series has experienced significant variance in opening performance. The 2000 original grossed $42.3 million domestically over its opening weekend, whilst 2003's Scary Movie 3 opened to $42.9 million. By contrast, 2006's Scary Movie 4 managed $41.9 million, and 2013's Scary Movie 5 dropped to $15.1 million. The franchise's appeal has eroded considerably over two decades, with audience interest fragmenting across streaming platforms and competing horror-comedy properties. Recent horror-comedies like Cocaine Bear (2023) opened to $23.1 million, providing a contemporary benchmark for mid-budget genre entries.

Key variables affecting opening weekend performance include marketing spend, critical reception upon release, and competition from other films launching the same weekend. The film's cast, director, and production budget remain undisclosed as of late 2025. Traders should monitor trade publications including Variety and The Hollywood Reporter for production updates, trailer releases, and advance ticket sales data closer to the June release date, all of which typically correlate with opening weekend outcomes.

Methodology

This page reviews "Scary Movie" Opening Weekend Box Office across five venues. We show live odds for Polymarket-based markets (sourced from the Polygon order book); for other venues we list platform attributes, since the comparable contracts are not exposed via a public API on every venue. Every CTA points at Prediction Market UK — the application we operate, where you trade directly against the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Prediction Market UK is available in most jurisdictions where Polymarket isn't directly accessible. Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check local regulations.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

Not under $1,500 of lifetime trading volume. Above that threshold, Prediction Market UK triggers a quick verification flow that finishes in minutes.