"The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office

Platform comparison

Market context

"The Odyssey" is scheduled for theatrical release in July 2026, and this market tracks its domestic box office performance during the second weekend of release (24–26 July). A YES share pays out if the film's three-day weekend gross falls within a specified bracket; a NO share pays out if it falls outside that bracket. The settlement relies on final figures from The Numbers, a box office tracking database, rather than studio estimates. Traders are essentially wagering on whether the film will sustain audience interest beyond its opening weekend—a critical metric for determining whether a release has genuine commercial legs or faces a sharp drop-off.

Second-weekend performance historically separates films with broad appeal from those dependent on opening-week novelty. Blockbusters typically retain 50–65% of their opening weekend gross, whilst mid-budget dramas often see 40–50% retention. The current 1% implied probability suggests the market expects a particularly weak second weekend, either because early tracking data points to soft opening numbers or because the film's genre and marketing profile suggest limited staying power. Without confirmed opening-weekend figures yet available, traders should monitor early preview screenings, critic reviews (expected in late June), and audience sentiment metrics, which historically correlate with retention rates.

Key variables include competition from other releases that weekend and any last-minute marketing pushes or cast announcements. Traders should track The Numbers' daily updates once the film opens, as second-weekend performance becomes measurable only after opening-weekend results are finalised. The settlement window closes 26 July at 23:59 UTC, giving the market approximately one week to confirm final figures before resolution.

Methodology

This page reviews "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office across five venues. The live probability is the Polymarket mid-price, sourced directly from the on-chain Polygon order book; the comparison columns benchmark each venue on fee structure, KYC, settlement currency and payment rails. Every CTA routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.

How reliable are the quoted odds?

The YES/NO percentages are the live mid-prices of the Polymarket order book. On deep markets they move every few seconds; on thinner ones you'll see short plateaus.