"The Odyssey" Opening Weekend Box Office

Platform comparison

Market context

Christopher Nolan’s adaptation of Homer’s epic, *The Odyssey*, is opening in North American theatres today, with domestic box office figures for the 17–19 July window set to determine the outcome of this prediction market. A YES share pays out if the final gross falls within a specific bracket defined by the market, while a NO share wins if it lands outside that range; here, the crowd currently implies a 0% chance of YES, suggesting traders expect the film to miss the target bracket entirely.

Historical comparables frame this extreme probability: Nolan’s *The Dark Knight Rises* debuted at $160 million, yet current projections for *The Odyssey* cluster between $80 million and $132 million domestically, with most analysts settling near $85–$100 million [1][2][6]. If the market’s YES bracket requires a figure above $100 million or below $80 million, the 0% pricing reflects confidence that the actual gross will land squarely in the middle range, avoiding both extremes. Recent tracking confirms record IMAX presales and 28,000 tickets sold in 24 hours at the UK’s BFI IMAX, reinforcing expectations of a strong but not record-shattering domestic opening [3].

Traders should watch the finalisation of the three-day gross on Monday, 20 July, when studio estimates are replaced by confirmed figures from The Numbers [1]. Key catalysts include any sudden shifts in audience turnout over the weekend, particularly given the film’s reliance on premium large-format screens, and the international performance, which is projected to add $110 million globally [1][7]. As the settlement window closes on 19 July at 23:59 UTC, the decisive data point will be the non-estimated domestic total, which will resolve the market definitively.

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

Polymarket is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. The easiest 0%-fee broker into the same order book is Prediction Market UK. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

Is this market available outside the US?

Polymarket itself is geo-blocked in the US/UK/EU. Always check the legal status of prediction markets in your jurisdiction before trading.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.