"Young Washington" Opening Weekend Box Office

Platform comparison

Market context

The real-world event driving this market is the domestic opening weekend gross of the historical war epic *Young Washington*, which premiered in the United States on July 3, 2026, for the Fourth of July holiday. In prediction markets, a YES share represents a bet that the film’s three-day total will land within a specific bracket, while a NO share bets it will fall outside that range. This specific market resolves once the final, non-estimated figures for July 3–5 are confirmed on The Numbers, with the current crowd-implied probability of 0% suggesting traders believe the film will miss the lowest bracket entirely.

Historical context for reading this 0% probability is found in comparable July releases and the film’s own reception. While early tracking suggested an opening between $23 million and $35 million, the film has debuted to a rare Rotten Tomatoes Popcornmeter score, yet is projected to earn approximately $18 million domestically, outperforming major summer tentpoles like *Supergirl* which collapsed 76% in its second weekend [1][2]. This projection sits below the $23 million floor of the primary bracket, aligning with the crowd’s view that the film will not reach the higher threshold, despite its star-studded cast including Andy Serkis and Sir Ben Kingsley [1].

Traders should monitor the finalisation of the three-day box office figures, which are expected to be confirmed as non-estimates by the settlement deadline. The key catalyst is the official domestic total, which industry analysts currently project at $18 million, a figure that falls exactly between the lower bracket and the next range, triggering a resolution to the higher bracket if it matches precisely [1][3]. With the film competing against *Minions & Monsters* and *Toy Story 5*, the final gross remains the sole dependency, and any deviation from the $18 million projection could shift the market’s outcome significantly [5][8].

Sources: 1 · 2 · 3 · 4 · 5

Methodology

This page is a comparison snapshot: one live quote, four reference venues with their key attributes, and a single execution path — every trade button routes to Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book directly.

Resolution & payout

Polymarket-based markets settle through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon. A proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and unchallenged proposals finalise the resolution. Payouts settle automatically in USDC the moment the result is final — no bookmaker, no delay.

Kalshi-based markets settle in USD via the CFTC-regulated clearinghouse. Betfair Exchange settles in GBP/EUR net of commission. Manifold is play-money and does not pay out real funds.

FAQ

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does Polymarket cost to trade?

Polymarket itself charges 0% — the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction. Off-chain venues like Kalshi or Betfair charge 2-7% commission.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.

Do I need to KYC for this market?

On Polymarket directly, no — it's wallet-based. Intermediary brokers like Prediction Market UK trigger KYC only above $1,500 of lifetime trading volume; under that you trade pseudonymously with a single wallet address.