What will be the top global Netflix show this week?

Platform comparison

Active sub-markets

Market context

Netflix publishes a weekly global Top 10 ranking of its most-watched television shows every Tuesday at 3:00 PM ET, based on cumulative viewing figures from the preceding Monday through Sunday. This market asks which show will occupy the #1 position in the update scheduled for 16 June 2026. A YES share represents a bet that a specific show will rank first; a NO share bets it will not. The settlement hinges entirely on Netflix's official data release, with a fallback to "Other" if the update fails to publish by 19 June 2026 at 11:59 PM ET.

Netflix's weekly rankings have historically been dominated by a rotating set of established franchises and newly launched prestige dramas. Shows including *Stranger Things*, *The Crown*, *Bridgerton*, and *Wednesday* have held the top spot multiple times over the past two years, though the platform's release schedule creates sharp volatility. A major new season premiere or film release can displace incumbents within days. The 0% implied probability suggests either extreme uncertainty about which show will lead that specific week, or that traders expect no clear frontrunner to emerge before the settlement window closes.

Traders should monitor Netflix's release calendar for the week of 9–15 June 2026, particularly any surprise drops or season premieres scheduled for that period. Viewership momentum from the prior week's rankings also matters: shows already in the Top 10 often retain position unless displaced by fresh content. Netflix occasionally delays or adjusts its reporting schedule, so confirmation of the Tuesday 3:00 PM ET publication date closer to mid-June will be essential for settlement certainty.

Methodology

We track What will be the top global Netflix show this week? on the five venues with material liquidity for prediction markets. Live odds come from the Polymarket Polygon order book — the only source that ships real-time data under an open licence. For Kalshi, Betfair and Manifold we list platform attributes (fee, KYC, settlement, payment) instead of fabricated odds, because their APIs use non-comparable contract definitions.

Resolution & payout

At resolution the UMA oracle takes over: a proposer posts the outcome with a bond, any token holder can dispute within two hours. Without dispute the result is accepted and the smart contract distributes USDC instantly.

On Kalshi (CFTC-regulated) resolution runs through their in-house clearing engine in USD. Betfair Exchange settles after match end in the account's local currency. Manifold pays no cash — only its in-platform "mana" currency.

FAQ

Where can I trade this market with the lowest fees?

On Prediction Market UK, which mirrors the Polymarket order book at 0% fees. Kalshi charges up to 7% per trade; Betfair Exchange takes 2-5% commission on net winnings.

How does resolution work?

Through the UMA Optimistic Oracle on Polygon: a proposer submits the outcome, a two-hour challenge window opens, and USDC payouts settle automatically once the result is final.

What's the difference between YES and NO shares?

A YES share pays $1.00 if the event happens, $0 otherwise. A NO share pays $1.00 if the event doesn't happen. The market price between 0¢ and 100¢ is the implied probability.

What does it cost to trade on Prediction Market UK?

Zero. Prediction Market UK routes every order to the live Polymarket order book; the only cost is the Polygon network fee, typically under $0.01 per transaction.

How fast are USDC deposits?

Polygon credits deposits after 12 confirmations — usually under 30 seconds. Withdrawals follow the same path and land back in your wallet within minutes.